Additional Defensive Analysis 9/10/07

[Filmstudy]

The Ravens lined up with 4, 5, or 6 DB’s on every play. The results:
Standard: 31 plays, 155 yards, 5.0 YPPA, 1 TO, 0 Sacks
Nickel: 17 plays, 91 yards, 5.4 YPPA, 0 TO or Sacks
Dime: 6 plays, -8 yards, -1.3 YPPA, 0 TO, 1 Sack

The pass rush numbers looked funny:
3: 3 plays/4 Yards, 1.3
4: 18/82, 4.6
5: 8/95, 11.9
6: 3/5, 1.7, 1 Sack
7: 1/0, 0.0
If you group the 5-7 man rushes, it’s still 8.3 YPPA. This is very different from last season when the Ravens had great success rushing more against Cincy. I would not draw too much on the 8 plays, which included both of the Bengals 2 longest plays, but Carson and that makeshift line did beat our blitz twice.

Individual notes:
• For context, the team as a whole gave up 2.7 YPC, and 5.5 YPP, and 4.4 YPPA on non-kneels.
• Haley looked horrible. 2 Plays for 23.0 YPPA plus he was in for the converted 2-point conversion which does not count in the stats. He really appears lost on the defense, although he’s a good special teams player. IMO, Burgess is a must-have active for this coming week. I would expect Winborne to sit.
• Sapp turned in the best numbers as his plays were the 6 “Dime” plays above (-8 yards)
• The leaders:
o YPC: Ngata at 2.1
o YPP: Ivy 4.0 on 19 plays, Lewis 4.4 on 32 plays
o YPPA: Ivy 3.6 on 23, Lewis 3.8 on 53
• Ivy played only the nickel and dime situations above. Subjectively, I don’t think they made any real attempt to pick on him, but his responsibilities are typically inside and Palmer was throwing primarily outside.
• How good was Lewis’s game? First, ignoring the courage, the inability to use his arm cost us a big 15-yard penalty on the drive to Graham’s 23-yard FG. Otherwise, all he did was miss 1 play (thanks for the catch R19), and that was the Bengals 39-yard TD pass, their longest of the night. He recorded 11 of the teams total of 46 combined tackle credits, and I can’t even guess how badly the Ravens would have fallen apart with Haley in at MLB for the bulk of the game.
• I’ve written extensively about Ngata elsewhere, so I won’t again, but the other DT’s were mildly disappointing. Edwards relieved Pryce at RDE for the 39-yard TD. Did that matter? Well part of rushing 5 is getting to the QB, and Having Edwards rushing from the blind side did not help. I still have hope Edwards can play more like he did in the preseason. He looks like he made a serious commitment to off season conditioning. Bannan, like last season, contributed nothing to the pass rush, although the plays he was in were typical of success of the team as a whole. The announcers made a big deal of the Bengals getting off a no-huddle play on 3rd and 1 (which they converted), but in fact Bannan was able to get in to replace Ivy before the snap.
• Gregg had 28 (non-penalty) plays on which the Bengals averaged 6.4 YPPA, worst of the starters. I expect him to rebound against the Jets. With the money we’ve committed to him this off season, we need him not to get old. BTW, Football Outsiders suggests that DT is the defensive position with the latest age at which players decline.
• Suggs, Johnson, and all 4 starting DB’s played all 54 defensive snaps.

[jonboy79]

Simple question...
This info seems invaluable. How do you think the info you collect, compares to what teams are doing currently?
BY this I mean, do you think that the Ravens have a similar chart that shows how each player performed by grouping the plays in whihc they were inserted? I have never seen this kind of statistical analysis by ANYONE in the press. If they Raven's do not currently collect this data, you belong on payroll. I can't imagine that there is no value to a team in your spreadsheet...

Great job, as always.

[Filmstudy]

I've seen it said that the NFL keeps "a database with every play". That could mean the NFL gamebooks, which are a terrific source, but does not have participation by play. I'm not aware that any other organization that keeps participation, although I certainly have asked scoring groups as well as software companies. It's the only truly difficult to get information I collect.

As to the Ravens...I would feel confident in saying they keep something that is:
1. Very detailed
2. Meets their needs to analyze and teach

After all, they have a name such as "Chrebet fire zone" (remember the 2004 NFL GOTW vs. the Jets) for each blitz package they send, where as that might just be recorded as 5/1(95) on my spreadsheet (5 pass rushers, Jarrett Johnson dropped off the line of scrimmage into zone coverage).

[ravenwoman]

I am gathering from your analysis, that the Ravens had better tighten up on defense, if they are going to have the success that they enjoyed last year. In addition, if the defense falters, the offense is going to have to contribute a whole lot more. Isn't that a scary thought?

Very thorough analysis, Filmstudy.

[flraven]

Filmstudy,
As always, great analysis and thanks!! Do you work for the Ravens? if not, you should. :)

There are some that think this game is a gimme, the 10 point spread notwithstanding. NO NFL game is a gimme, and I think the Ravens will be fired up to show that last week was an aberration.

[festivus]

Filmstudy, many many thanks for the work you put in here. You are an asset to the forum, for sure, and I always look for your posts.

Jonboy, I would hazard a guess that the kind of analysis Filmstudy applies does scratch the surface of the kind of work NFL teams do. I would, again, guess that their work *begins with* exactly what filmstudy does. I would imagine their work might add layers of analysis, such as when X player is in lined up at Y position, *and* the opposing team is in Z set, and so on and so forth. Across games, etc. For this analysis to be useful to an OC, for instance, I would want to know, when Ivy is in, where does he line up depending on the offensive set, what does he do, etc. etc.

I would be very curious to hear from someone who actually *knows* - DF, if you ever read other peoples' threads, do you know? - but I think this is where it all begins for them.

Thanks again, Filmstudy.