Odds Makers

[HoustonRaven]

Ok, something is very fishy ....

First, Vegas drops the Ravens off the board two games straight .... then they only give us a 4 point spread? Yeah, the home team gets a few points in their favor but to list only at -4?

We have outscored the Browns 101 to 67 in our last 5 games head to head, winning 4 of the last 5. We have 25 SACKS against the Browns over the same 5 games while they have managed a putrid 7. Oh, and the Browns are 6-20 against AFC North opponents dating back to '03. And how can I forget that "Super Tight End" Kellen Winslow is hurt (again).

Does Vegas think Jamal will have that big an impact? :insane:

[purplepoe]

It's all about where the money is being bet.

And if you look at the Ravens vs the Browns in Cleveland, the spread seems just about right.


Also, we were 10 pt favorites vs the Jets at home and didn't cover.

And we were 8 or 9 pt favorites vs the Cards at home and didn't cover.

And if you look at the way we've played in Cleveland over the past 3 games we've won by 1 point and lost in 05 and 04.


Jamal has nothing to do with it. The lines are set based on how Vegas thinks people will bet. Then they move accordingly.

PP

[HoustonRaven]

It's all about where the money is being bet.

And if you look at the Ravens vs the Browns in Cleveland, the spread seems just about right.


Also, we were 10 pt favorites vs the Jets at home and didn't cover.

And we were 8 or 9 pt favorites vs the Cards at home and didn't cover.

And if you look at the way we've played in Cleveland over the past 3 games we've won by 1 point and lost in 05 and 04.


Jamal has nothing to do with it. The lines are set based on how Vegas thinks people will bet. Then they move accordingly.

PP

Vegas took the Jets and Cards game off the board in the 11th hour. A friend who lives in Nevada said he heard a rumor about big bets coming in against the Ravens both times. Nothing but rumor, I admit, but still odd.

[Galen Sevinne]

Ok, something is very fishy ....

First, Vegas drops the Ravens off the board two games straight .... then they only give us a 4 point spread? Yeah, the home team gets a few points in their favor but to list only at -4?


Bet the house on the Ravens then...see if you really think they are that wrong.

[Mr.Boh]

When will some people relize that the spreads are a reality unto them selves- The odds makers are not there to predict the score, they are there to make sure the house wins.

[purplepoe]

When will some people relize that the spreads are a reality unto them selves- The odds makers are not there to predict the score, they are there to make sure the house wins.

Yup.

There's a reason that new hotels with 4000 rooms are being built yearly out in Vegas.

PP

[psuasskicker]

When will some people relize that the spreads are a reality unto them selves- The odds makers are not there to predict the score, they are there to make sure the house wins.

No, that's not right. They still have to be close to right on those predictions to avoid getting killed. You think Vegas can afford to just open Ravens -10 o/u 30 and just let the line work itself out?

No. They have some of the best handicappers in the world figuring out what they think will happen, and then may or may not adjust the line based on fan-base decisions. For instance, odds-makers said they felt USC vs. Texas in the championship game with Palmer/Bush vs. VY was a 2 pt fav on neutral turf, plus another 2 pts for the Rose Bowl, but instead of setting USC -4 they opened USC -6 because of the huge public favor toward USC. Taking Texas +6 was easy money, but you still have to have incredible handicappers as well as an incredible ability to know where the public's going to put their money.

I thought this game would open Ravens -3. Ravens -4.5 is a big spread on the road...home field gives 3 points of advantage vs. neutral turf, which means if it were Clev @ Balt it'd be a Ravens -10.5 spread. We're 0-3 ATS this year and have played three very close games. Clev is 2-1 ATS this year. They're not as bad as people thought they'd be and have been very competitive with Anderson at QB.

Winslow's injury is holding this line where it is, unfortunately for me. I took Clev +4.5 at open thinking the line would move and that I could get or buy half a point to a nice middle at Ravens -2.5...Winslow's status seems to be keeping this line where it is. If Winslow starts and the line stays where it is anyway, I'm perfectly happy with Clev +4.5 given that I thought the line should open Clev +3.

People need to stop dumping on Vegas and where they're setting the lines. A great line from a friend of mine:
"Vegas hotels sit on $25 mil/acre property, bar stool pundit houses do not."

- C -

[psuasskicker]

I'm gonna go back to this thread a minute and bring this back up. Vegas, FWIW, had the o/u at 39 and about dead on here. The lines have been very favorable to home dogs this year. Betting ML on all of them is hugely profitable this year, not to mention betting them ATS. The question is if/when the public will adjust to this, and hence if/when Vegas will adjust. Home dogs this week:
KC +2 (Really like this line and will bet it)
StL +3.5 (meh)
SF +3 (Both SF and Ravens suck...Dilfer starting though so I lean Ravens here)
Buff +10 (Like this line as well and will probably bet it)

Betting dogs this year in general has been very profitable. There seems to be some value potentially in Seattle (would this game be a pick'em in Seattle? I think no).

But something happened on line open that is extremely bad for the book. Pinny accidentally opened the KC line at -4.5 rather than +2. Now, it happens that if it would happen it was probably on the correct side. But there is no way KC should open -4.5 against a solid Jags team coming off a bye, even at home, and there was MASSIVE value betting the Jags +4.5 there.

The line took all of four minutes to correct, and don't think for a second that four minutes couldn't cost Pinny a significant amount of money. Early bets aren't a lot of money compared to public money flowing on game-day, but the sharps are out in droves early. And now you have a situation where a sharp could have this:

Load max on Jax +4.5
<wait>
Load max on KC +2.5
Which opens up a MASSIVE middle. If this game finishes anywhere between KC winning by 4 and Jags winning by 2, it will cost Pinny a huge amount of money. And with two evenly matched teams in KC, there's way too much of a chance that happens for anyone to be comfortable.

- C -