Merlin
11-30-2008, 03:08 PM
This team is better than you think when you look at some historical statistics. December is going to be exciting and may be the beginning of a good 2-3+ year run.
When I’ve looked through the Football Outsiders database for the past 10 years (statistics that are adjusted for opponent so that they are comparable from year to year), the only 2 years that are comparable to Ravens performance so far in 2008 (not including the Cincy game) is 2000 and 2006.
Here are the overall statistics.
Defense Offense Special Teams Total
1999 -21.5% -18.8% 1.8% 4.5%
2000 -30.0% -7.1% 7.2% 30.1%
2001 -17.2% -12.9% -0.1% 4.2%
2002 -6.6% -5.4% -2.5% -1.3%
2003 -28.4% -12.7% 2.8% 18.5%
2004 -19.3% -5.4% 3.0% 16.9%
2005 -11.1% -16.7% 0.4% -5.2%
2006 -25.8% 2.6% 3.5% 31.9%
2007 -10.6% -15.9% -3.6% -8.9%
2008 -25.8% 5.1% -3.2% 27.7%
A couple of things stand out
1. The defense is playing at a level comparable to 06 although not quite the level of the 03 and 2000 teams
2. Our offense has never played better in the past 10 years. It’s still not great, but we’ve been used to such wretched performance that an above average offense is good.
3. Our special teams are really the weak side of the team – we haven’t played worse than this except for 2007. If we get to the playoffs, Harbaugh should consider putting in some better players from the offense or defense that he normally wouldn’t.
The stats don’t measure character of course or the lucky fumbles or penalties, but they do measure how good football a team is playing.
Next week with Washington is THE critical game – if we can win this game convincingly, I think we have a shot at winning the division or even running the table.
Things are also looking up in the long-term for the team – just think of the players coming back next year – Sypniewski, Yanda. Landry and Gregg The O-line and Flacco will only get better and the D line is solid, with the only question mark being Pryce and age. Team is getting steadily younger these last 2 years with the key people who will be 32 or older in 2010 being Lewis, Gregg, Pryce, Mason, Rolle, Stover and Neal.
To understand DVOA – go to this link http://www.footballoutsiders.com/info/methods#dvoa. An average team is zero % (e.g., Bengals of 2007). A truly great team has a DVOA of above 30-40%. (07 Patriots 52%, 99 Rams 49.3%). Top 2 or 3 DVOA in a year are usually above 30%. With defense a negative DVOA is better.
When I’ve looked through the Football Outsiders database for the past 10 years (statistics that are adjusted for opponent so that they are comparable from year to year), the only 2 years that are comparable to Ravens performance so far in 2008 (not including the Cincy game) is 2000 and 2006.
Here are the overall statistics.
Defense Offense Special Teams Total
1999 -21.5% -18.8% 1.8% 4.5%
2000 -30.0% -7.1% 7.2% 30.1%
2001 -17.2% -12.9% -0.1% 4.2%
2002 -6.6% -5.4% -2.5% -1.3%
2003 -28.4% -12.7% 2.8% 18.5%
2004 -19.3% -5.4% 3.0% 16.9%
2005 -11.1% -16.7% 0.4% -5.2%
2006 -25.8% 2.6% 3.5% 31.9%
2007 -10.6% -15.9% -3.6% -8.9%
2008 -25.8% 5.1% -3.2% 27.7%
A couple of things stand out
1. The defense is playing at a level comparable to 06 although not quite the level of the 03 and 2000 teams
2. Our offense has never played better in the past 10 years. It’s still not great, but we’ve been used to such wretched performance that an above average offense is good.
3. Our special teams are really the weak side of the team – we haven’t played worse than this except for 2007. If we get to the playoffs, Harbaugh should consider putting in some better players from the offense or defense that he normally wouldn’t.
The stats don’t measure character of course or the lucky fumbles or penalties, but they do measure how good football a team is playing.
Next week with Washington is THE critical game – if we can win this game convincingly, I think we have a shot at winning the division or even running the table.
Things are also looking up in the long-term for the team – just think of the players coming back next year – Sypniewski, Yanda. Landry and Gregg The O-line and Flacco will only get better and the D line is solid, with the only question mark being Pryce and age. Team is getting steadily younger these last 2 years with the key people who will be 32 or older in 2010 being Lewis, Gregg, Pryce, Mason, Rolle, Stover and Neal.
To understand DVOA – go to this link http://www.footballoutsiders.com/info/methods#dvoa. An average team is zero % (e.g., Bengals of 2007). A truly great team has a DVOA of above 30-40%. (07 Patriots 52%, 99 Rams 49.3%). Top 2 or 3 DVOA in a year are usually above 30%. With defense a negative DVOA is better.