Great Playoff Forecasting Model from Yahoo

[TL24x7]

You will probably enjoy this YAHOO PLAYOFF MODEL (http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/playoffscenario;_ylt=Ap0xYLeV0Um0.s2OSzzq29xDubYF)

[f7eleven]

very neat!

this is how i have it shaking down...

http://lh3.ggpht.com/_ItLWm086bls/STgBaICytkI/AAAAAAAAAqM/tE5FBp4faHQ/playoffs.jpg

[Jeremiah W]

That was interesting. It seems like it will be very tough to get the 2 seed even if we go 12-4, but seems like we will get in as the 6 seed unless there is a collapse. The Steelers seem to get the tie breakers even if we beat them and we are both 12-4. Indy looks like they will get to 12-4 but there is still a lot to be sorted out.

[psuasskicker]

I would bet $100 that the Jets do not go 12-4, and even if they do they don't have the tie-breaker over either Pitt or us.

If we finish 12-4 and Pitt does the same I think I might eat my hat. Pitt plays Dallas, @ Balt, @ Tenn and then rivalry with Clev...

- C -

[f7eleven]

go through each week, select who you think will win and post your results like i did.

i'm interested to see how everyone thinks the last four weeks will play out.

and the only possible good thing that could come of a loss to the Skins this week is if they finish 11-5, miss the playoffs, and we still get the 6th seed. i know that would drive my skin-fan-friends mad.

[ravenfever_com]

Well the only good news is if you go on just Yahoo's take ... We WIN Sunday ! Then forget Yahoo since they think the Stillers who we took to OT in their house will win in our house ... NOT HAPPENING!!

[UKRavenGordon]

So basically IF we win the division, we'll almost definately be the number two seed. Three wins gets us in the postseason.

In my model I had two AFC East teams not making it at 11-5. So much for the NFC's early season dominance.

[ChampRavens]

It is a neat tool. Will be checking in on it again on Monday...

That steeler game could not be bigger.

[Filmstudy]

I like this tool, but I think it may have a flaw.

It does not seem to handle the SoV tiebreaker correctly for the Ravens in the event:

Bal:
Beats Pit
Loses to Dallas
Beats Jax

Pit:
Loses to Bal
Loses to Tenn
Beats Cle

If someone with a good understanding of the tiebreaker could verify that the above set of results leads to SoV being the divisional tiebreaker, I'd really appreciate it.

[hurting]

I like this tool, but I think it may have a flaw.

It does not seem to handle the SoV tiebreaker correctly for the Ravens in the event:

Bal:
Beats Pit
Loses to Dallas
Beats Jax

Pit:
Loses to Bal
Loses to Tenn
Beats Cle

If someone with a good understanding of the tiebreaker could verify that the above set of results leads to SoV being the divisional tiebreaker, I'd really appreciate it.

You probably already have this, but here is a link to the tie breaker guidelines:

http://msn.foxsports.com/nfl/story/3222236/NFL-Tiebreaking-Procedures

By your scenario, both teams end up 11-5, and split the head to head matchup. They both have the same conference record at 5-1, next is best won lost record in common games (someone else has already posted this, and i think we tie them in this scenario.) next is strength of victory. And this is where the Stealers have the advantage. The winning percentage of the teams they will have beaten will be higher than the winning percentage of the teams we have beaten. I think our wins against the raiders probably brings us down.

Anyway, i am no exert, but this is what i had heard on a local sports radio show, so don'r kill the messenger if I am wrong.

:)


Edit: "that the above set of results leads to SoV being the divisional tiebreaker"

oops, i see you already had it down to SoV. Anyway, no i have not calculated the winning percentages of the teams the Ravens and Stealers would have beaten if this scenario is correct.

[Jeremiah W]

the SOV can still change. The Steelers had to play the SD and NE games while we got OAK and Mia, but they have pretty similar records combined. They lost to Philly and we crushed them, and it could come down to that if they also lose to the Titans. If they beat the Titans they deserve to win the division, if they can recover after we stomp them at home.

[Mr.Boh]

bump

[Mr OC]

How accurate is this thing? I went to it and punched in New England losing to Buffalo this weekend. I then punched in Jax beating the Ravens. Then no matter who I chose in the Miami/NYJ game, the Ravens were still shown to be in the playoffs. Is this correct? If the Pats lose @ 1:00, are the Ravens are automatically in?

[hurting]

How accurate is this thing? I went to it and punched in New England losing to Buffalo this weekend. I then punched in Jax beating the Ravens. Then no matter who I chose in the Miami/NYJ game, the Ravens were still shown to be in the playoffs. Is this correct? If the Pats lose @ 1:00, are the Ravens are automatically in?

Yes, that is the case. There is a good breakdown of the scenarios at this Sun article:

http://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/football/bal-sp.ravens22dec22002018,0,3099835.story


.

[Mr OC]

Yes, that is the case. There is a good breakdown of the scenarios at this Sun article:

http://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/football/bal-sp.ravens22dec22002018,0,3099835.story


.
That's great, thanks. So there's a possibility that the Ravens can rest some of their more injured players once the Pats/Bills outcome is known. Cool.

[Jeremiah W]

that would be great. we deserve a fake bye after getting robbed of the one we earned.